868
FXUS66 KLOX 232022
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
122 PM PDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.SYNOPSIS...23/1239 PM.

A shallower marine layer is expected over the next few days.
Warm weather will peak on Wednesday and continue into Thursday.
A push of moisture today will bring a low chance of a shower or
an isolated storm from Ventura County eastward. This moisture will
linger into Wednesday morning. A cooling trend with temperatures
below normal is expected Friday into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...23/120 PM.

A 592 dm ridge is currently situated over Socal. This ridging is
expected through Wednesday before breaking down to zonal flow on
Thursday with significant cooling by Friday.

Heat advisories are in effect through Thursday evening across LA
County. Temperatures are expected to be warmest Tuesday (Today)
and Wednesday. Feels-like temps will be higher due to humidity.
Refer to NPWLOX for more details.

PVA and the influx of mid-level monsoonal moisture will result
in a slight chance of thunderstorms (15%) across the eastern
San Gabriel mountains and eastern Antelope Valley early this
evening into the overnight period. This moisture will linger
across LA County into Wednesday morning.

NAM12 cross-section shows a moist layer roughly from 700mb-
500mb on top of a dry PBL which extends westward to Ventura
County. However, a pocket of vorticity sufficient enough to
trigger convection remains confined to eastern LA county.
This can also be seen explicitly in the Omega fields. Fire starts
from dry lightning is a concern for any storm that initiates.
This is especially true over the eastern San Gabriels where
updrafts are most likely to be strong enough for charge
separation. Hi-Res guidance shows MUcape values roughly 250-400
J/KG in this area. Some models are weaker with the lifting and
struggle to develop any substantial convection, but considering
the setup and general consensus - a 15% chance of TSTMs over the
aforementioned areas seems reasonable.

Onshore flow will strengthen to the north through Thursday and
to the east through Saturday. This will result in gusty SW winds
across the interior - strongest across the Antelope Valley/ft
hills and portions of LA county mtns. Approaching advisory levels
Thursday into Friday. Sundowner potential increases on Friday,
with likely advisory level winds especially on Saturday.

With increasing onshore flow, decreasing 500 mb heights, and
increasing potential for Catalina Eddy (throughout the week)
this will result in the continuation of marine layer stratus
across the coasts and valleys.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...23/120 PM.

An upper trough will strengthen and dive into the Great
Basin through the weekend. As a result, cyclonic flow will
develop over the region. Moderate to strong onshore flow
to the east is expected. A bit weaker to the north. ECWMF
guidance suggest a short-lived (Saturday & Sunday) reduction
in onshore flow to the north followed by returning moderate
onshore push. The general pattern is expected to persist thru
the end of the forecast period.

Cooling trend is expected through Saturday or Sunday depending on
location. Most pronounced on Saturday (5 to 10 degrees) especially
across interior areas away from marine layer influence.
Temperatures are likely to remain fairly similar thereafter thru
Tuesday. June Gloom conditions are expected across the coasts and
many of the valleys.

Gusty SW-W winds near advisory levels are likely Saturday and
possible Sunday across the Antelope Valley and I-5 Corridor (NW-W).
Winds will remain gusty but will decrease some Monday and Tuesday.
But especially across the I-5 corridor as the LAX-BFL gradient
increases by a few millibars. As mentioned in the short-term,
Sundowners will peak on Saturday (advisory likely). Advisory level
winds could linger into Sunday. Sundowners will continue through
mid-week but for now look mostly below advisory levels. These
winds will be focused across western Santa Ynez range.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1821Z.

At 1800Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was 3000 feet with a temperature of 21 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPMD & KWJF.

Moderate confidence in the remainder of TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY
restrictions may be delayed by up to 2 hours and cig hgt by +/-
200 ft.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR CIGs linger late this
morning. VFR conditions this afternoon and evening. Timing of
flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts.
No significant east wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20-40% chance of
MVFR/IFR CIGs between 08-16Z Wednesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...23/120 PM.

High confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through Wednesday. Local gusts
could reach 21 kts near Point Conception and across the western
Santa Barbara Channel in the evenings. Chances for SCA criteria
gusts increase Thursday evening. Probabilities increase Thursday
evening into Friday morning to 30-60% for PZZ670/673. Chances
expand and increase Friday afternoon to the inner waters
PZZ645/650 and outer waters PZZ676. SCA conditions are possible
through the weekend as a trough continues to move over the region.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PDT Thursday for
      zones 88-368-372-373-379-380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Black
AVIATION...Batz
MARINE...Batz
SYNOPSIS...Black

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office